Exciting Times Around the Blawg . . .

As Kyle King announced yesterday, I will be joining the team at Dawg Sports immediately, focusing on basketball and recruiting coverage. This won't change a whole lot of what goes on around MaconDawg's Blawg. I anticipate that there will be times when my random observations on UGA sports will be found here in much the same form they always have. But a lot of other stuff will show up over on Kyle's site, which is part of the fast-growing SportsBlog Nation family of blogs. This should give both of us the chance to improve our content, grow as writers, avoid neglecting our day jobs, and make it to the occasional Drive By Truckers show.

In other words, it's what that guy in your office sporting the gold cufflinks and hair plugs would call a "win-win". I do want to take this opportunity to thank the 12, 000 to 13,000 of you who have visited this site in its first 8 months of existence. You're all appreciated, and I hope you'll continue to tune in.

It's Official. Watts Plays His Swan Song.

The athletic department is reporting that offensive gaurd and virtuoso musician Seth Watts will forego his final two years of eligibility. This is not entirely surprising given that he was not practicing yesterday and there had been some rumblings about Watts' status.

Watts was a 4-star offensive guard/tackle prospect out of Washington County who had even been positively singled out by the coaches during winter Mat Drills. That followed a 2006 campaign in which he saw a good bit of playing time, but was never very impressive. Toward the end of the year it began to look as if Neil Callaway would rather put Michael Turner, Fernando Velasco and Chester Adams in an early grave than risk putting Watts on the field, which probably took a toll on him.

Admittedly, the first signs that Watts' heart was no longer on the football field came when he began hanging out with Keith Richards and slid from his playing weight of 313 pounds down to 160. Oh yeah, and there was that time he spent touring with the Rolling Stones.

It's always a little sad when a kid who comes in with a lot of potential doesn't progress as a football player. On the other hand, this is more fodder for those who think that Neil Callaway couldn't pick a decent offensive line prospect out of a lineup if he was standing between Pee Wee Herman and Henry Kissinger while holding a bottle rocket.



In the end analysis, Watts was not looking like a key contributor. He would have provided some veteran depth, which is always nice, but this is not a mission-critical kind of loss. Good luck Seth.

In other news, there's a rather big announcement forthcoming on this site tomorrow. I can't say yet what it is, but I can say I'm darn excited about it. I'm hoping you will be too.

Spring Practice Excitement and Kicker Commitment News.

Today is the first day of spring drills in Athens. The Dawgbone.net folks have a good roundup of what's being said around the internet on the subject. From these sources I'd simply like to note:

The composition of the O-Line: I don't think it's surprising at all to see Chris Davis getting a look at center. He came in a little light to play tackle or guard, but has been consistently singled out for his footwork. With Ian Smith's off-field problems, he's just not a reliable option at that position right now. I was a little surprised that Josh Davis is getting the early nod at one tackle spot, but I think that is largely because he has been in the system the longest. He will have a hard time holding onto that spot. The offensive line drills will be one long competition this spring, and I'm glad. Competition breeds improvement, and we've simply not had enough warm bodies to really compete all through spring for some time now.

Miller in the middle: I'm still not convinced Brandon Miller has what it takes to play in the middle. This is largely due to the fact that he's exhibited two limitations so far in his career: mobility and decision-making. In a 4-3 set the mike backer has a lot of decisions to make, more so in most circumstances than the sam backer. Also, while some people think moving him to mike will camoulflage a lack of mobility, the opposite could be true. While middle linebackers in a 4-3 are not running downfield with the flanker, they are dealing with a lot more traffic flow in the middle. It's the ability to get through this "trash" and get to the ball that sets the great mike backers apart. I'm afraid we'll see Brandon Miller blowing up blockers only to get to the ball one step too slow. Of course I'm hoping I'm wrong here.

The receivers: We saw some positive momentum from this group toward the end of the year. It will be interesting to see the competition at that spot.

Also, in case you missed it, the Dawgs picked up commitment #8 for the class of 2008 this weekend with a verbal from Blair Walsh, a punter/kicker out of Boca Raton. If you're wondering why we're after a punter given our depth chart, Paul WesterDawg has your answer right here. I think the term PWD used was "big-toed monster". The kid is by all accounts a phenom.

I think we're also seeing another trickle-down effect from the pro ranks, where kickers have been taking on a much higher profile the past 3-4 years. Call it the "Adam Vinatieri Effect", if you will. Also, I think that after Brandon Coutu's injury, Mark Richt will never, ever coach another game without a reliable backup kicker if there's anything he can do about it.

Not Enough Information: UGA vs. UT

As you may recall, my analysis of football recruiting is inclined toward giving you more information than you really need. I could do the same with basketball I suppose, but today I'm proposing a different approach.

The fact is I don't have much empirical information to draw on. The last time these two teams played, everything was different: we had Mike Mercer, the Philbillies didn't have Chris Loftin and the game was in Knoxville, not Athens. I'm hoping the result is different as well, and I'm going out on a limb and predicting it will be, for the following reasons:

1) Home sweet home: the Dawgs are 6-1 in-conference at the Stege this year, and undefeated against teams not defending their national title.

2) The 3-ball: Tennessee plays a much smaller lineup and will have to hit from the perimeter to win this one. That's always harder to do on the road. Of course, it helps when you have Levi Stukes standing there watching you shoot with his arms hanging at his sides, but I digress . . .

3) Takais Brown: We've done a better job of getting him the ball inside lately, which in turn frees up the kickout, which really helps our shooting.

My prediction: UGA 74, UT 69.

UGA vs. UK Recap (and some thoughts on LS pulling a TO).

Note: I was going to post this yesterday before the weather in this part of the world went to hell in a handbasket. I'll be back with something more timely later.

Try as they might, an incredibly shorthanded Bulldog club was unable to beat Tubby's Cats in Lexington. This is not surprising, of course. What was surpirising was Steve Newman playing a whale of a game (again) when we needed him to. Newman is not a "next level" guy, but he has been quietly solid this year when we've needed him to be. We didn't turn the ball over nearly as much as we have in the past. Unfortunately UK shot lights out, and generally played a great second half at home, which is precisely what you are supposed to do. If this game were played in Athens, I think we win. Oh yeah, we did. As I said yesterday, the SEC is not a good place to be visiting. When the home teams shoots 59% from the field, 54% from behind the arc, and 85% from the line, they usually win. Simple as that.

As for Stukes, if he in fact blew off a mandatory lifting session and spouted off to the staff, then he got what he deserved. Rules are rules, and this program has plenty of experience with proponents of situational discipline. It hurts, but as long as the players know the standards, then I can't fault Felton for applying them

Wednesday Morning Quick Hits.

I've got a busy day on tap, but then again so do Felton's Dawgs. A few notes on tonight's game at Kentucky.

Felton says we need nine wins. Chip Towers at the AJC talked to CDF, who says we're not in (no shocker there), but that a win at Kentucky would "absolutely" help. I personally will not feel comfortable about our chances unless we either a) sweep these last two, b) split them and win one in the tournament, or c) lose both and win two in the tournament. None of those is a foregone conclusion with our recent inconsistency.

Kentucky fans are delusional. And most of them without the surname "Judd" aren't very talented, as Paul WesterDawg, the good folks at the UgaSports.com Hoops Board and hardcore Louisville bloggers CardChronicles point out. By the way Big Blue, congratulations on your 7 National Championships. Too bad all but two of them came before the end of the Jimmy Carter administration. Alabama fans will see your delusion, and raise you two thousand houndstooth hats full of cash.

It's not really that I'm that big an Ashley Judd fan, though she was OK in Double Jeopardy. It's just that she's the only University of Kentucky basketball fan without a buzzcut or a mullet, and that's worthy of notice. (picture courtesy of ESPN.com)

Tubby's pants are warming nicely. The seat occupied by the head basketball coach at Kentucky is set to a toasty 120 degrees even during July. But lately Tubby's chair is looking more and more like the creme brule station at one of Lexington's fine eating establishments (Checker's or Arby's, for example). Exhibit A? The formal statement Monday from Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart which Pat Forde excerpted on ESPN.com:

"Kentucky basketball is important to all of us who are a part of the Big Blue Nation. I know that the fans, coaches and players are disappointed with the results of the season up to this point, but it's important to wait until the most critical part of the season is complete before reviewing the program. Our fans' lofty expectations for this program, which I share, have not changed. However, history tells us that the college basketball season can change quite a bit between February and March. If the close games we've lost in February become victories during the tournaments, then this team has a chance to play up to its potential, which is what all of us as Wildcat fans want."

There's only one surer sign that you're on the way out in college athletics than a "vote of confidence" from the AD. That's when he won't even give you that and throws out veiled "significant improvement" references. Just ask Ray Goff. Most coaches get a season. Tubby apparently gets a month.

The Game. Oh yeah, there's actually a basketball game tonight. While I take the MSU game as a sign that we're adjusting to life without Mike Mercer, I am not optimistic. For one, we haven't been very good at putting two hot shooting performances back-to-back. Second, winning on the road in the SEC is very, very difficult. This team has been way better at the Stege than they are on the road, much less at a place like Rupp. I think this sets up a do or die game gainst the Vols. Let's hope that my pessimism is as misplaced here as it was against Cowbell U. on Saturday.

Akeem Hebron Arrested.

Rivals is reporting that Akeem Hebron was booked by Athens-Clarke County police just before 8 a.m. this morning on a charge of underage possession of alcohol. There's no mention of DUI, obstruction of an officer, public drunkenness or any of the other Ian Smith-esque offenses which roughly 20% of UGA undergraduate men get pinched for at least once prior to graduation. Sounds like he was probably in somebody's dorm room drinking when the campus cops came to turn the music down. And so ends a joyously quiet offseason of misdemeanor-free behavior.

My guess is a 2 game suspension to start the season for Akeem. The real punishment will be what this does to his chances for playing time at the Will Linebacker spot. I would like to point out however that Mudcat Elmore's car does not appear to be involved. I view this as a sign of progress for our disciplinary regime.

Of course, if he were drunk in an alley in bucolic Richland County, SC and bowed up at a Columbia police officer, Spurrier would give him 24 hours to think about it before returning to Pavlov's. Not that I'm making fun of that or anything . . .

Dawgs over MSU, Tournament Thoughts

As you've no doubt heard, the University of Georgia pulled off a convincing win at home over the Mississippi State feaux-dawgs at the Stege yesterday afternoon. I was not optimistic going into this one and was surprised to say the least to watch the Dawgs not only win, but never trail and rarely even let the hoopsters from Cowbell U. within 10. Worth noting from this one:

Shoot well, win games: As I've noted on this site before, basketball is a fairly simple game at heart. The team that puts the little round ball in the basket the most times wins. When we've shot poorly, we've lost. This time out we shot well. Paul notes that our ball movement was far better than in recent games, and I concur. However I can't shake this dark sense of foreboding that it might not last. The real test will come Wednesday at Rupp Arena, when I fear Billy Humphrey and Levi Stukes will be jacking up multiple 32 footers as the shot clock expires. For one day however, we didn't experience the sort of crippling scoring drought that has doomed this team repeatedly this season.

Life: It's about changes. Georgia did a great job of establishing a presence down low in the first half. I see this as progress from the first 2-3 games after Takais Brown's emergence (I'm thinking of the Tennessee game principally) in which defenses collapsed down on TB and there was little we could do about it. Again, this is largely a function of ball movement.

The obligatory bubble talk: This game helps. Our RPI is up to 52. It was a convincing win against a team that's been hot of late. If we don't win this one, I think we're all but done. Now, however, I think there are three paths into the Big Dance:

Path One: Beat Kentucky. The one thing missing from our resume this year is a signature road win. While Kentucky's not really Kentucky this year, a win in Rupp is always impressive, especially in late February. If we can pull that out we'd get to 18 wins and 9-7 in the SEC. As Paul recently pointed out, getting to 9-7 in the SEC means you're in unless your signature nonconference wins were at home against Mercer and Albany State. You may have noted that I'm quoting PWD liberally in this post. The reason is that he's just been on fire with the basketball coverage lately.

Of course, our RPI is still too low for comfort, as 45 and under seems to be a much safer bet. I'm not sure how much precedence there is for an SEC team making it in with an RPI like ours. To say the least, Gonzaga and Wake Forest are off my Christmas Card list. As revolting as their seasons have been for their own fans, the two prennial tournament teams have turned what looked like big early wins for us into games that actually hurt us in the court of computer opinion. I know it's a longshot, but if we knock off Tubby's Cats (current RPI: 7), I think we're in.

Path Two: Beat Tennessee. Admittedly, road wins in the SEC are hard to come by. I'm not counting on us beating Kentucky. Losing in Lexington would set up a game in Athens between two teams who need to win to get in. Quite frankly, I don't relish this possibility, but it's the most likely scenario. Knocking off a team with Tennessee's RPI (11, currently) would probably get us into the mid-forties, where we need to be.

Path Three: Make a tournament run. I like our chances against anybody the SEC West has to offer on a neutral court. But I think if we lose the last two, we'll need back to back wins in the SEC tournament, and I just don't know if this team has that in them. If however we get to the semifinals, we may be able to make a late push.

The Big Picture: If you'd told me in October that we would be where we are, I'd have been happy. I didn't think coming into the year that we would have home wins against LSU and Kentucky. I would have been pretty pleased with an NIT appearance which would set us up for next year. Making the Dance means that the rebuilding process is one year ahead of schedule in my book, as this was the first year in which Felton is really playing with a full deck.