So Long Allen, We Hardly Knew You (And Some Thoughts on a Three Star World).
It's official, UGA recruiting target and MaconDawg's Blawg posterchild for grown-ass manhood Allen Bailey has eliminated Georgia from his list of finalists because he "didn't feel like he fit in at Georgia". Bailey didn't really say if he was talking athletically, socially, academically, or metaphysically (I hear Willie Martinez ain't into feng shui). He will now choose between Bama, Florida and Miami.
The guess going around recruiting circles (and as with almost all matters of recruiting it is nothing but guesswork) is that Bailey wants to play linebacker and Georgia wanted him to play defensive end.
"Then tell him he'll get his chance at linebacker!!!" You say.
They probably did, I'd reply. But when you just had an occasional starter at linebacker consider going pro because he was told before his senior year that the coaches want to move him to defensive end, those promises might have rung a tad hollow. And if you think Urban Meyer and Nick Saban didn't see that Bailey got a copy of every Brandon Miller article in the past 60 days, you are sorely mistaken.
Also at issue (I'm guessing) was Bailey's relationship with Kirby Smart, who started recruiting him at Georgia, left for the Miami Dolphins, and resumed recruiting Bailey for Alabama. I am living in fear of Bailey signing with Florida, since it is the school closest to his home. This would be a truly miserable development.
There has obviously been a lot of message board chatter about this year's recruiting class, and this only ratcheted things up. Suffice it to say that there are not a lot of "Oh my God, can't miss, pull up in a stretch Hummer to announce" kind of prospects in this class. With the possible exception of Caleb King, I don't think there are any. I'm working on a much more indepth analysis of individual players for closer to signing day. But here's the gist:
This recruiting class meets our needs and includes several big time players. But we're counting on a lot of 3/4 star guys to develop into five star talent. Some of them inevitably will (a la Thomas Davis, David Pollack, etc.) and others won't. The percentages that fall into each category will determine in 2-3 years how successful this class was.
The fact is three and four star players are the backbone of most BCS Conference recruiting classes. Unless you're USC, you can't haul in classes with 4.5 average star ratings forever, and even if you do a lot of those guys end up transferring (like Antwine Perez who was the top safety prospect in the country last year and this year is transferring to Maryland). We're getting guys who are capable of getting the job done. Will they? I don't know. Those recruiting rankings generally provide a blanket of false comfort to block the chill of uncertainty. "We had the #4 ranked recruiting class this year" I think in March, "certainly the program is heading in the right direction." This year I won't be able to do that. I'll have to trust that the mix of 3/4 star recruits Coach Richt is bringing on board are better than the similar mix that the likes of Oregon and Nebraska are bringing in.
However, the upsetting thing is that it looks like Mark Richt's wall around the state fo Georgia has some holes in it. If we're fortunate enough to sign Cam Heyward, we'll have three of Rivals' top 10 in Georgia (2 assuming Izzy Troupe opts to play baseball). That's bad, no matter what our needs were. And while most of those other guys have a story (Berry's a Tennessee legacy, Claytor is slow with poor strength numbers, T-Bob Hebert is more cajun than Farmer Fran) the only state university in the southeast that regularly loses 7 of it's top 10 instate recruits is South Carolina, and that's not something to aspire to. A couple of more years like this and we will be in some trouble because, while the recruiting services do miss sometimes based on degree, they're rarely completely wrong. If 50% of your recruits are 3 star players, and only half of them turn out to be 5 star college players, that means 25% of your team is just average. You can't win the SEC being average at 25% of all positions.
And that's before considering the defection/jettisoning of Conrad Obi and Clifton Geathers, the still-uncompleted saga of Antwane Greenlee and this latest whiff on the most physically ready to play prep star in the state of Georgia.
Bottom line: we had a down year on the field, and glaring needs that had to be filled, even if that's not sexy to the recruiting services. But if some of these marginal guys don't pan out we will be in knee deep. I for one trust the coaches to evaluate the talent (at least now that Coach Callaway is gone), and I'm withholding judgment.
The guess going around recruiting circles (and as with almost all matters of recruiting it is nothing but guesswork) is that Bailey wants to play linebacker and Georgia wanted him to play defensive end.
"Then tell him he'll get his chance at linebacker!!!" You say.
They probably did, I'd reply. But when you just had an occasional starter at linebacker consider going pro because he was told before his senior year that the coaches want to move him to defensive end, those promises might have rung a tad hollow. And if you think Urban Meyer and Nick Saban didn't see that Bailey got a copy of every Brandon Miller article in the past 60 days, you are sorely mistaken.
Also at issue (I'm guessing) was Bailey's relationship with Kirby Smart, who started recruiting him at Georgia, left for the Miami Dolphins, and resumed recruiting Bailey for Alabama. I am living in fear of Bailey signing with Florida, since it is the school closest to his home. This would be a truly miserable development.
There has obviously been a lot of message board chatter about this year's recruiting class, and this only ratcheted things up. Suffice it to say that there are not a lot of "Oh my God, can't miss, pull up in a stretch Hummer to announce" kind of prospects in this class. With the possible exception of Caleb King, I don't think there are any. I'm working on a much more indepth analysis of individual players for closer to signing day. But here's the gist:
This recruiting class meets our needs and includes several big time players. But we're counting on a lot of 3/4 star guys to develop into five star talent. Some of them inevitably will (a la Thomas Davis, David Pollack, etc.) and others won't. The percentages that fall into each category will determine in 2-3 years how successful this class was.
The fact is three and four star players are the backbone of most BCS Conference recruiting classes. Unless you're USC, you can't haul in classes with 4.5 average star ratings forever, and even if you do a lot of those guys end up transferring (like Antwine Perez who was the top safety prospect in the country last year and this year is transferring to Maryland). We're getting guys who are capable of getting the job done. Will they? I don't know. Those recruiting rankings generally provide a blanket of false comfort to block the chill of uncertainty. "We had the #4 ranked recruiting class this year" I think in March, "certainly the program is heading in the right direction." This year I won't be able to do that. I'll have to trust that the mix of 3/4 star recruits Coach Richt is bringing on board are better than the similar mix that the likes of Oregon and Nebraska are bringing in.
However, the upsetting thing is that it looks like Mark Richt's wall around the state fo Georgia has some holes in it. If we're fortunate enough to sign Cam Heyward, we'll have three of Rivals' top 10 in Georgia (2 assuming Izzy Troupe opts to play baseball). That's bad, no matter what our needs were. And while most of those other guys have a story (Berry's a Tennessee legacy, Claytor is slow with poor strength numbers, T-Bob Hebert is more cajun than Farmer Fran) the only state university in the southeast that regularly loses 7 of it's top 10 instate recruits is South Carolina, and that's not something to aspire to. A couple of more years like this and we will be in some trouble because, while the recruiting services do miss sometimes based on degree, they're rarely completely wrong. If 50% of your recruits are 3 star players, and only half of them turn out to be 5 star college players, that means 25% of your team is just average. You can't win the SEC being average at 25% of all positions.
And that's before considering the defection/jettisoning of Conrad Obi and Clifton Geathers, the still-uncompleted saga of Antwane Greenlee and this latest whiff on the most physically ready to play prep star in the state of Georgia.
Bottom line: we had a down year on the field, and glaring needs that had to be filled, even if that's not sexy to the recruiting services. But if some of these marginal guys don't pan out we will be in knee deep. I for one trust the coaches to evaluate the talent (at least now that Coach Callaway is gone), and I'm withholding judgment.
posted by MaconDawg at 1:08 PM
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