Thursday, January 04, 2007

More Saban to Bama Fallout . . .

This thing has taken on a life of its own. Headline of the day honors go to Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald for his entry: "The anti-Shula bails out as a greasy, dishonorable coward" And we say Brazilian soccer fans go a tad far sometimes? Jeez.

One Baton Rouge area high school coach has predicted Saban won't get another decent player out of the state of Louisiana. I tend to agree, because I've learned how much of an influence high school coaches have in recruiting. I can't imagine that Slick Nick has much credibility among Louisiana high school coaches right now. Saban will however have some success in Alabama, for one simple reason. High school kids, god bless them, are gullible sometimes. Saban will show them around Alabama's facilities, talk to them about how they're his number 1 priority, and generally envelope them in a web of houndstooth hued lies. One day he'll leave to take a better job (within the next four years by my guess) or, as was arguably the case in Miami, he'll leave because he knows he's going to get fired otherwise.

One spectacle that I can't wait to see is what happens when Saban loses to Auburn next year. It will happen because, quite frankly, the Alabama team he inherits is a long way from the football factory Tommy Tuberville is running in east Alabama. Oh, the Bama name is still there, but Saban is walking into a football locker room with adequate to slightly above talent, followed maniacally by a fan base for whom "adequate to slightly above" gets you fired one year after a 10 win season, in a year in which you replaced the future NFL defensive rookie of the year (so says www.demecoryans.net) plus your starting quarterback and a boatload of other key contributors.

Saban is a notoriously prickly character. Some in the media would emphasize the "prick" portion of that analysis. Frankly, I have to believe that part of the national media backlash over this is Saban's status among media types as a perceived all-world jackass.

If there's one thing I've learned from acquaintances in the media, it is that they can tell you who the assholes are. Whether in politics, sports or entertainment, reporters can all tell you who you probably shouldn't accept at face value, who's a jerk and who's a genuinely nice guy/gal. Nick Saban, by all accounts, is not a media darling. This should provide all kinds of comic relief for the rest of us over the coming years. Or months. Or until Saban gets a better offer. We are after all talking about the place where Mike Shula had to change Churches to avoid fan harassment duing communion. (HT: Erik @DeepSouth Sports)

Alabama got a good football coach. I don't necessarily think he's great, but given the other options they were left with, Saban was clearly the best available. And I think he'll win games there. I think he'll win enough games to steal some recruits from Auburn and Tennessee, which is good for us. However, I don't think Saban will ultimately win enough games to keep Bama fans happy. And eventually he'll leave. He always does. He's like Larry Brown, only with hair.

Bama fans are now saying that if Saban is around for 4-5 good years and then leaves, they'll be ok with that. They're either lying to themselves, or lying to the rest of us. These are the same people who would have drawn and quartered Dennis Franchione if he hadn't gotten on the plane to College Station, Texas before they could get to him. Dennis Franchione, people.

Four years by the way will be plenty of time for the NFL folks to forget how Saban spent two years at the helm of the Dolphins and accomplished nothing other than drafting Ronnie Brown and coddling Ricky Williams. The NFL is the only industry in the world where prior failure is almost a prerequisite for a job offer. The league has more retreads than your local Goodrich man. Saban will be back there, and maybe he'll leave the Tide in a better position than he found them. Only time will tell.

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